An Update from the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service
President Donald Trump's approval remains underwater among North Carolinians—43 percent approve to 54 percent disapprove—and that political environment appears to be benefiting Democrats heading into the 2026 midterm elections, according to a new Catawba College–YouGov Survey.
This political environment indicates a traditional mid-term election, with Democratic candidates leading key ballots tests and half of the state’s independents currently supporting Democrat Roy Cooper in the open U.S. Senate race, providing him a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley.
Among the 1,000 weighted respondents to the online survey, Trump’s approval and disapproval in June remains the same from March’s survey, when the president held a 42 percent approval to 55 percent disapproval.
Among the survey’s 905 weighted likely voters, Cooper received 48 percent to Whatley’s 34 percent, with 15 percent undecided at this point for November’s U.S. Senate election. These findings are consistent to the results from March’s survey, where Cooper lead by 15 points.
"Cooper's advantage is not simply a function of Democratic support," said Dr. Michael Bitzer, director of Catawba College's Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, which wrote and paid for the survey. "His lead is being driven by independents, who currently support him by more than two-to-one over Whatley. That independent vote can often be a decisive factor in statewide North Carolina elections."
“In addition, this year appears to be setting up as a classic mid-term environment: a referendum on the president and his party. Cooper has a commanding portion of those North Carolinians who disapprove of the president, which is a majority of likely voters so far.”
The online survey was conducted by YouGov of 1,000 weighted North Carolinians from June 1 to 10, 2026, and has an overall margin of error of +/-3.83 percent; subgroups will have a higher margin of error. All survey results should be viewed as informative and not determinative.
Trump’s approval in North Carolina is slightly higher than his national numbers, thanks to his party’s support: 86 percent of self-identified N.C. Republicans approve, compared to just 13 percent who disapprove. Among state Democrats, nearly 80 percent disapprove of the president. The major factor for the president’s underwater status are Independents, two-thirds of whom disapprove, compared to only 28 percent who approve.
“Another noticeable dynamic is within the state’s regions: while six in ten North Carolinians who live in major cities disapprove of Trump, 55 percent in urban suburbs and rural communities also disapprove. Trump performs best in the state's exurban counties that surround the urban counties, where 54 percent approve and 44 percent disapprove,” Bitzer noted.
Democratic Governor Josh Stein continues his majority approval rating, at 53 percent, with 27 percent disapproving. Three-quarters of Democrats and 53 percent of Independents approve of Stein, along with 36 percent of Republicans.
COOPER'S SENATE ADVANTAGE DRIVEN BY INDEPENDENT VOTERS
In the open-seat contest for the U.S. Senate, “the race is being driven by political independents, who currently support Cooper by more than two-to-one,” said Bitzer. “However, nearly a quarter of independents are undecided about the contest at this point.”
Among Independents, 50 percent support Cooper, while 23 percent support Whatley. Among Cooper’s own party base, 83 percent support him, while 77 percent of Republicans back Whatley.
When divided between those who approve and disapprove of President Trump, the vote intention is very clear: two-thirds of those who approve of Trump intend to vote for Whatley, while 77 percent of those who disapprove of Trump are for Cooper.
Both men and women support Cooper, but there is a significant gap: women are 20 points more for Cooper (49 to 29) while men are only six points more for Cooper (46 to 40).
Regionally, Cooper leads among city voters by 37 points and among rural voters by 11 points. He leads by 5 within the highly competitive urban suburbs, while Whatley leads by 5 in the surrounding suburban/exurban counties.
The survey also found evidence that Republican voters may be redefining their political identity in ways that could affect the state's political environment.
NORTH CAROLINA REPUBLICANS HAVE GONE FROM ‘TRUMP-CENTERED’ TO MORE ‘PARTY-CENTERED’
In several Catawba-YouGov surveys, North Carolina Republicans were asked if they saw themselves more as Trump Republicans or Party Republicans. The June survey marks a distinctive and abrupt shift in how GOP-aligned respondents view themselves.
In October 2025 and January 2026, majorities of North Carolina Republicans (both those who said they were Republican and those who said they were independent but leaned to the GOP) said they were “more a supporter of Donald Trump than the Republican Party overall”: 55 percent aligned themselves with the president, while 45 percent said they were “more a supporter of the Republican Party than Donald Trump overall.”
But in June, there was a significant 24-point swing away from Trump identification and towards Party identification.
“This is a significant shift among Republicans in North Carolina,” Bitzer said. “GOP voters remain overwhelmingly Republican, but many appear less likely than they were six months ago to define themselves primarily through their support for Donald Trump.”
- Among independents who lean Republican, they flipped from being a +6 Trump-supporter to a +10 Party-supporter group.
- Among ‘not very strong’ Republicans, Party-support went from +12 in October and January to +58 in June.
- Among ‘strong’ Republican identifiers, Trump-support went from a previous +20 in the past two surveys to dead-even now with Party-support.
“This shift seems to signal a noticeable ‘cooling’ to Trump-centered Republican identity, driven by suburban and female respondents. Even among Trump’s own 2024 voters, there was a significant movement away from being a ‘Trump Republican,’ from 60 percent in January down to 43 percent in June. This could indicate Trump fatigue inside the Republican coalition — voters remain Republican-aligned, but perhaps less Trump-personalized,” Bitzer noted.
BOTH POLITICAL PARTIES IN CONGRESS ARE UNDERWATER, BUT DEMOCRATS HAVE THE ADVANTAGE IN THE GENERIC BALLOT
North Carolinians continue to disapprove of both political parties in Congress: 54 percent disapprove of the majority Republican Party, while 51 percent disapprove of the Democratic Party.
Survey respondents were broken into four categories regarding congressional party approval and disapproval:
- Only 13 percent of respondents approve of both parties in Congress.
- 30 percent approve of Democrats and disapprove of Republicans.
- 27 percent approve of Republicans and disapprove of Democrats.
- 30 percent disapprove of both parties.
Yet when it comes to the U.S. House generic ballot, Democratic U.S. House candidates are 8 points ahead of Republicans, 46 percent to 37 percent, with 13 percent undecided. This is an increase of three points over March’s Democratic +5 generic ballot measure.
“When analyzed by those who approve versus disapprove of the parties in Congress, the overall eight-point Democratic advantage remains,” Bitzer said. “Among those who disapprove of both parties, Democrats are 18 points ahead of Republicans, 48 to 30 percent. Of those who approve of both parties, Democrats hold an 8-point advantage, 48 to 40 percent.”
For the North Carolina General Assembly, Democrats have a 6-point advantage in the state house (44 to 38), and an 8-point advantage for the state senate (45 to 37). The state’s supreme court contest is closer, with Democrat Anita Earls holding a five-point advantage (40 to 35) over Republican Sarah Stevens, with two in ten voters undecided for this contest.
NORTH CAROLINIANS CONTINUE TO OPPOSE U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN IRAN
Despite continued tensions with Iran, a majority of North Carolinians (54 percent) oppose sending U.S. troops into the conflict, with only a quarter supporting such a move.
When asked whether the president has a clear plan for the Iran campaign, only 31 percent say so, with 61 percent saying Trump had no clear plan or no plan at all. Over seven out of ten Democrats and Independents say the president lacks a plan, while six in ten Republicans say he has one.
In January’s Catawba-YouGov Survey, 37 percent of North Carolinians expressed approval of U.S. military action against Iran. Six months later, a similar number—35 percent—continue to support military intervention against Iran. Driving the overall opposition at 44 percent are Democrats (60 percent said they were against the action) and Independents (55 percent are opposed), while nearly two-thirds of Republicans support the military action.
NORTH CAROLINIANS ARE SPLIT ON WHO WILL ULTIMATELY CONTROL CONGRESS
When given four scenarios for the outcome of November’s general elections, the state is split on which party will ultimately control the Congress: 37 percent believe that the Democrats will take both chambers, while another 37 percent believe Republicans will continue to control both houses of Congress.
“One party is obviously going to be disappointed come November’s results,” Bitzer noted. “While a quarter of North Carolinians foresee a divided Congress, partisans within each camp have clear majorities saying their party is going to take over, or retain, control of Congress.”
This is the first release of findings from the June 2026 Catawba-YouGov Survey. Future releases will feature questions regarding North Carolinians’ opinions on the Declaration of Independence, concerns about political violence leading up to November’s general election, when political candidates transgress against democratic values, and issues of affordability.
