An Update from the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service
As North Carolina and the nation enter the final stretch of the 2026 midterm campaign, President Donald Trump continues to see his approval ratings underwater in the state. And while North Carolinians are divided on who will ultimately control the U.S. Congress following Nov. 3’s election, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper continues a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the latest Catawba College-YouGov survey.
“In June, President Trump was underwater by 11 percentage points, with a disapproval rating of 54% to a 43% approval. Now, that gap has growing to 14 points, with Trump’s approval at 41% compared to 55%,” said J. Michael Bitzer, professor of politics and history and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service that wrote and commissioned the survey. “The political environment continues to reflect a classic mid-term election, with an unpopular president and his party facing a challenging electoral environment.”
When asked which of four scenarios they thought would describe control of Congress following the election, 32% of North Carolinians said that Republicans would continue to control both chambers, while 28% said that Democrats would do so. A quarter (24%) said that Democrats would control the U.S. House, while Republicans maintained control of the U.S. Senate.
“Even with an increasing movement towards the Democrats in a number of key congressional races, there is still uncertainty among North Carolinians as to November’s outcome,” Bitzer said.
The survey, conducted online by YouGov, has 1,000 North Carolinians, weighted to be a representative sample of the state. The overall margin of error (adjusted for weights) is plus or minus 3.68 percentage points; subgroups will have a higher margin of error, and survey results should be viewed as informative and not determinative.
Cooper Continues Double-Digit Lead Over Whatley Among Likely Voters
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Roy Cooper has a 12-point lead over Republican Michael Whatley, 47% to 35% among the 885 North Carolinians who say they are likely to vote in November.
“When you take those likely voters and ask the undecideds who they are leaning towards, the double-digit lead remains, with Cooper at 48% and Whatley at 37%,” Bitzer noted.
“Typically, by this point in the campaign, North Carolina’s state-wide elections will begin to tighten, as the respective partisan bases go to their party’s candidate. Among Democrats, 85% are supporting Cooper, while among Republicans, 79% are supporting Whatley. The deciding factor in North Carolina’s state-wide elections, however, are the independents, and they are currently breaking to Cooper by 20 percentage points, 48% to 28%.”
Within the survey demographics, Whatley leads Cooper by 5 points among white non-Hispanic likely voters, while Cooper leads by 60 points among Black likely voters. Both men and women favor Cooper, with Cooper having an 18-point lead among women.
Whatley leads by 10 in suburban counties surrounding major urban counties, but both men are tied in rural North Carolina counties. Cooper has a large lead in the urban counties of the state.
Opinions on Trump Closely Align With Vote Intentions Across North Carolina Contests
Views of President Donald Trump are strongly associated with how North Carolina voters say they intend to vote across the 2026 ballot. Among voters who approve of Trump’s job performance, roughly seven in 10 say they would vote for the Republican candidate in the U.S. Senate race, the U.S. House, North Carolina House, and state Senate generic ballots, and the North Carolina Supreme Court contest.
The pattern reverses among voters who disapprove of Trump. Between two-thirds and three-quarters of Trump disapprovers say they intend to support the Democratic candidate across these same contests. The relationship is especially pronounced in the U.S. Senate race: 71% of Trump approvers support Republican Michael Whatley, while 72% of Trump disapprovers support Democrat Roy Cooper.
“These findings show that public sentiment towards President Trump is a powerful marker of partisan voting intention—not only in a high-profile federal race like U.S. Senate, but also in down-ballot contests for the state legislature and state Supreme Court,” Bitzer noted.
Generic Ballots Continue to Show Democrats Favored for U.S. House and N.C. General Assembly and Supreme Court Races
When asked which party’s candidate they will vote for in the U.S. House of Representatives, 47% say the Democratic candidate will definitely or likely get their vote, compared to 38% saying the Republican candidate.
“The U.S. House generic ballot has been an important measure of how things are moving on the ground, and with a 9-point gap, this is a strong indication of the current political environment favoring Democratic candidates,” Bitzer said. “Like the U.S. Senate contest, both parties have their bases rallied around them. However, Independents are breaking 46 to 25 for the Democrats over the Republicans, with 27% still undecided as we move to early voting and November 3rd’s election.”
Down the ballot, the generic contest trend remains very similar to the congressional level: 47% say they will vote Democratic for the N.C. state House, compared to 39% voting Republican, while 48% support the Democratic state Senate candidate, compared to 38% for the Republican state Senate candidate.
And it’s not just the legislative races, but the N.C. state Supreme Court election sees similar dynamics at play. Democratic incumbent Associate Justice Anita Earls has 44% support, compared to Republican candidate Sarah Stevens at 36%. Almost two in 10 North Carolinians are undecided in this race.
Majority Still Approve of Gov. Stein, While Both Congressional Parties Are Underwater
North Carolinians are still supportive of Gov. Josh Stein, with 59% giving him approval to only 23% disapproval. This is a slight increase from the June Catawba-YouGov survey, where Stein was at a 53-27 approval/disapproval rating.
“While the president is suffering from high disapproval ratings, to find a chief executive at the state level with these numbers, especially in today’s polarized political environment, is something noteworthy,” Bitzer said. “Even Republicans give Stein a 48-43 approval/disapproval rating.”
Both congressional parties suffer from being underwater with their own approval ratings: 41% approve of congressional Republicans, while 50% disapprove, compared to 43% approval rating for congressional Democrats and 48% disapproval.
The September 2026 Catawba College-YouGov survey interviewed 1,000 weighted North Carolina adults online. Administered online Sept. 4-15, 2026, by YouGov, the survey was written and paid for by Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service. The survey’s adjusted overall margin of error is plus or minus 3.68 percentage points; subgroups will have higher margins of error. Results should be viewed as informative estimates rather than definitive measures of public opinion.
Future releases will focus on the issues of great importance to North Carolinians, along with their feelings regarding the possibility of political violence associated with the election; and the perceptions of “Make America Great Again” and the democratic socialist movement within the two political parties.
You may find additional details about the poll’s findings, methodology and responses below.
About the Center for NC Politics and Public Service
The Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College is dedicated to enriching civic dialogue, deepening understanding, and fostering engagement within North Carolina. Through non-partisan initiatives, the Center promotes the ideals of public service, civic character and engagement, and informed citizenship across the state. By educating North Carolinians about the state's political dynamics and emphasizing the value of public service, the Center cultivates practical political understanding and encourages active civic participation. In doing so, it helps instill a lasting respect for public life and being a responsible citizen — both among Catawba College students and throughout the wider North Carolina community.
About Catawba College
Founded in 1851, Catawba College is a four-year, private, liberal arts college located in Salisbury, N.C. Ranked as one of the best regional colleges in the South, Catawba is known for its intellectual rigor, dedicated faculty, beautiful campus, and strong commitment to sustainability and the environment. The College offers more than 70 undergraduate and four graduate programs allowing students to explore diverse interests and create their own academic pathway. Additional information is available at catawba.edu.
