An Update from the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service
Americans enter the final stretch of the 2026 midterm campaign with divided expectations about control of Congress and a generally pessimistic view of the country’s future, according to a new national survey from Catawba College and YouGov.
Among registered voters who say they intend to vote or remain undecided, 49% say they would support the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives if the election were held today, compared with 38% who say they would support the Republican candidate. Twelve percent are undecided.
At the same time, the public does not agree on the likely outcome of the November elections. When the four possible postelection scenarios are grouped by chamber, respondents are somewhat more likely to expect Democrats to control the House (53%) and Republicans to control the Senate (56%). No single postelection scenario received support from a majority of the 1,200 respondents surveyed from Sept. 4-9, 2026.
“Americans appear to be approaching the 2026 midterms with uncertainty about what will happen next,” said Dr. J. Michael Bitzer, director of Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, which wrote and paid for the survey. “Democrats currently have an advantage on the national House ballot, but no single postelection outcome commands majority support. The public’s expectations lean toward a Democratic House and a Republican Senate, reflecting a country whose political outlook remains deeply divided.”
Beyond the ballot, Americans expressed more pessimism than optimism about the country’s future. Pluralities are pessimistic about the next six months and the next year, while a majority is pessimistic about the remainder of the Trump administration.
DEMOCRATIC ADVANTAGE FOR U.S. HOUSE AMONG INTENDED REGISTERED VOTERS — BUT WITH MEANINGFUL UNCERTAINTY
Among registered voters who say they intend to vote or remain undecided, 49% say they would support the Democratic candidate for the U.S. House if the election were held today, compared with 38% who say they would support the Republican candidate, while 12% are undecided.
“At this point in the campaign, Democrats have an advantage in the national contest for the U.S. House, but this survey should be read as a measure of current opinion around Labor Day — not a prediction of November’s results,” Bitzer said. “A meaningful share of intended voters remains undecided, and Americans are far from unified in their expectations about who will control Congress after the midterms.”
Bitzer noted that among intended registered voters, partisan loyalty is strong. “Ninety-six percent of Democrats say they would support the Democratic House candidate, while 89% of Republicans say they would support the Republican candidate. Independents lean toward the Democratic candidate, 43% to 31%, though 26% remain undecided.”
AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ON NOVEMBER’S LIKELY OUTCOME FOR CONGRESSIONAL CONTROL
When asked to choose among four possible outcomes for party control of Congress, Americans offered no clear consensus. The most common response — held by 32% — was that Republicans would retain control of both the House and Senate. Nearly three in 10 respondents (29%) expected Democrats to control both chambers.
| Expected Outcome | Percent |
|---|---|
| Republicans control both chambers | 32% |
| Democrats control both chambers | 29% |
| Democratic House and Republican Senate | 24% |
| Republican House and Democratic Senate | 15% |
A quarter of respondents believe that Democrats will win the House while Republicans retain the Senate. Only 15% believe the opposite: Democrats win the Senate, but Republicans control the House.
Although respondents selected among four combined House-and-Senate outcomes, grouping those responses by expected control of each chamber shows that Americans are somewhat more likely to anticipate Democratic control of the House and Republican control of the Senate.
Expected Control of Each Chamber After the 2026 Midterms
| Chamber | Democrats expected to control | Republicans expected to control |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. House | 53% | 47% |
| U.S. Senate | 44% | 56% |
Calculated by grouping respondents’ selections among four possible House-and-Senate outcomes.
Overall, 53% expect Democrats to control the U.S. House, while 56% expect Republicans to control the U.S. Senate.
“Americans’ expectations point toward divided control of Congress, though no single postelection scenario commands majority support,” Bitzer said.
PESSIMISM OUTWEIGHS OPTIMISM REGARDING THE NATION’S FUTURE
When asked about the country’s future over the next six months, the next year and the remainder of the Trump administration, Americans were more likely to say they were pessimistic than optimistic at each time horizon.
Over the next six months, 45% said they were pessimistic, compared with 29% who were optimistic. Looking ahead one year, 44% were pessimistic and 33% optimistic. And when considering the remainder of the Trump administration, a majority of Americans (54%) said they were pessimistic, compared with 27% who were optimistic, a 27-point gap.
Partisan differences regarding the nation’s future are large and consistent across all three time horizons: Republicans are net optimistic, while Democrats and independents are net pessimistic.
“Partisans view the country’s trajectory through sharply different lenses: 62% of Republicans are optimistic about the future during the remainder of the Trump administration, while 78% of Democrats and 58% of independents are pessimistic,” Bitzer noted. “Independents’ outlook is closer to Democrats’ perceptions than to Republicans’ views.”
“The 2026 midterms are shaping up against a backdrop of uncertainty and unease. Americans see a potentially competitive election ahead, expect the possibility of divided control in Congress and remain deeply divided over the country’s future,” Bitzer said.
The survey was conducted online from Sept. 4-9, 2026, by YouGov, which interviewed 1,200 U.S. adults ages 18 and older; results are weighted to be representative of U.S. adults. The overall margin of error, adjusted for weights, is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points; subgroups will have higher margins of error. In addition to sampling error, surveys are subject to other kinds of error; all results should be viewed as informative estimates rather than definitive measures of public opinion.
You may find additional details about the poll’s findings, methodology and responses below.
About the Center for NC Politics and Public Service
The Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College is dedicated to enriching civic dialogue, deepening understanding, and fostering engagement within North Carolina. Through non-partisan initiatives, the Center promotes the ideals of public service, civic character and engagement, and informed citizenship across the state. By educating North Carolinians about the state's political dynamics and emphasizing the value of public service, the Center cultivates practical political understanding and encourages active civic participation. In doing so, it helps instill a lasting respect for public life and being a responsible citizen — both among Catawba College students and throughout the wider North Carolina community.
About Catawba College
Founded in 1851, Catawba College is a four-year, private, liberal arts college located in Salisbury, N.C. Ranked as one of the best regional colleges in the South, Catawba is known for its intellectual rigor, dedicated faculty, beautiful campus, and strong commitment to sustainability and the environment. The College offers more than 70 undergraduate and four graduate programs allowing students to explore diverse interests and create their own academic pathway. Additional information is available at catawba.edu.
