An Update from the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service
As voters are casting ballots for the March primary election, a plurality of North Carolinians—45 percent—say candidates are most effective when they balance energizing their party’s base with appealing to swing and independent voters, according to the January 2026 Catawba-YouGov Survey.
“With in-person early voting beginning Thursday, these findings suggest North Carolinians are looking for candidates who can navigate both party loyalty and broader appeal, rather than choosing one at the expense of the other,” said Dr. Michael Bitzer, professor of politics and history and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, which wrote and paid for the survey administered by YouGov.
“But moving beyond the plurality combination, partisans want to energize their respective bases rather than appeal to swing voters, as compared to what independents want,” Bitzer noted. “North Carolina partisans pick ‘fire up the base’ candidates while independents prefer those who can ‘win the middle.’”
At the same time, there is a clear difference between Republicans and others when it comes to the type of candidate who has a better chance to win in a general election.
“While a plurality of North Carolinians see value in both candidate styles, the story is basically that Republicans tilt toward ‘base-oriented candidate,’ while Democrats and Independents tilt more toward the ‘swing candidate,’ as their preferred general election candidates,” Bitzer said.
These findings are from the January Catawba-YouGov Survey of North Carolinians, administered online January 13-22, 2026, with an overall margin of error (adjusted for weights) is plus/minus 3.69 percent for the 1,000 weighted responses. Where results of subgroups are reported, the margin of error will be greater; survey results should be viewed as informative and not determinative.
WHERE NC’S PARTIES DIVERGE: COMPROMISE VS. PRINCIPLES IN GOVERNING
The survey asked whether North Carolinians want candidates who are more compromise-oriented ‘to get things done’ versus sticking with party principles, even if that means being ‘less effective at legislating.’
Overall, North Carolinians viewed both compromising and sticking to principles as important, with partisan groups tending to cluster in the same instinctive place: they like both ideas in the abstract. However, the key difference shows up in the groups that choose one value over the other.
In analyzing four different categories (those who believe both Compromise and Principles are important; Compromise-only; Principles-only; and neither are important), Democrats split between ‘Both important’ and ‘Compromise-only,’ with relatively few in ‘Principles-only.’ In other words, Democrats tend to say yes to principles, but they are especially likely to also endorse compromise as a governing style.
Independents look broadly similar to Democrats in the overall shape of the distribution, with only modest shifts. They are not the mirror image of either party, as they are slightly less likely than Democrats to land in ‘agree both are important.’
Republicans show the biggest and most notable contrast, as they are likely to endorse ‘both important,’ but among those who pick one side of the tradeoff, Republicans tilt much more towards ‘Principles-only’ over ‘Compromise-only.’
“Put plainly, Republicans are much more likely than Democrats to say they want leaders who hold firm on principles even if that makes compromise harder, rather than leaders who prioritize compromise,” said Bitzer. “This partisan pattern is not subtle in magnitude: Republicans are about 15 points more likely than Democrats to be ‘Principles-only,’ and about 20 points less likely to be ‘Compromise-only.’”
“Across party lines, North Carolinians like the idea of those who can both compromise and stick to principles. But when answers force a choice, Democrats are more likely to prioritize compromise, while Republicans are far more likely to prioritize principles over compromise,” Bitzer noted.
Compromise is important to 83 percent of North Carolinians, led by Democrats (88 percent), Independents (85 percent), and three-quarters of Republicans. And while North Carolinians strongly value the principle of parties working with the opposition, Democrats are somewhat more supportive of their party working with the opposition than Republicans (87 percent to 82 percent, respectively).
When asked whether their party should be more centrist or more ideological, Democrats were much more likely to than Republicans to say their party should move more centrist (34 percent to Republicans’ 21 percent), while a significant majority of Republicans believe their party should stay where it is. Both parties have similar percentages that believe they should more ideological (24 percent for Democrats and 23 percent for Republicans).
In viewing their party’s candidates, Democrats are more likely to see their own candidates as being ‘too moderate,’ while Republicans are more likely to say their candidates are ‘about right.’
LOOKING AT GENERAL ELECTIONS IN NOVEMBER:
Across the five major contests tested for a generic ballot for November’s general elections (U.S. Senate, U.S. House, N.C. Supreme Court, N.C. Senate, and N.C. House), Democratic candidates received 45 percent support, compared with 37 percent for Republican candidates, while 14 percent remained undecided ten months out.
“The consistency across the five major contests on this fall’s ballot is not surprising,” Bitzer said. “While we will have specific candidates after the March primaries, this generic ballot provides an early snapshot to watch in the broader political environment throughout the 2026 election cycle.”
When it comes to candidate styles, sixty percent of North Carolinians overall say they are more likely to support a candidate from their party who agrees with them, but who is willing to work across the aisle, as compared to 22 percent who support candidates that won’t compromise with the other side.
But again, Republicans are more likely to prefer ‘no-compromise’ candidates while Democrats are much more ‘working across the aisle’ in supporting a general election candidate.
Beyond candidate style, the survey also examined broader electoral expectations. When it comes to predicting this November’s general elections, majorities of both partisan sides believe their party will have unified control of Congress: 56 percent of Democrats believe they will capture the two chambers, while two-thirds of Republicans believe their party will retain control of both the U.S. House and Senate.
Independents, however, are more mixed and notably the most likely to pick a divided Congress (37 percent), versus a third picking complete Democratic control and 29 percent saying there will still be unified GOP control of Congress.
When asked an open-ended question about their voting intentions, pluralities of partisan respondents offered party-loyal or anti-opposition motivations. Among Democrats, 43 percent offered responses that their vote would be for their party, while 32 percent said they were voting against Republicans. Republicans were even more party-focused: 57 percent said that they were voting for their party, compared with 26 percent who said they were voting against Democrats.
Independents, however, were more likely to frame their vote in opposition rather than party loyalty. Fifty-five percent of Independents intending to vote Democratic described their vote intention as “anti-Republican Party,” while 47 percent of Independents intending to vote Republican said their vote was “anti-Democratic Party.”
“While party loyalty drives many voting decisions in American politics, the strength of anti-opposition sentiment among Independents suggests these voters may hold strong partisan feelings even before the parties have selected their candidates,” Bitzer said.
