An Update from the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service
A majority of North Carolinians continue to disapprove of President Donald Trump and are pessimistic about the future of the country, according to the latest Catawba-YouGov Survey.
In the survey administered October 16-24, 52 percent of the 1,000 respondents disapprove of the president, compared to 55 percent when surveyed in August. Forty-four (44) percent approve, which was almost unchanged from the August survey (45 percent). The survey’s overall margin of error (adjusted for weights) is plus/minus 3.79 percent, meaning that in 95 out of 100 samples such as the one used here, the results should be at most 3.79 percentage points above or below the figure obtained by interviewing all North Carolinians. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the margin of error will be greater. Survey results should be viewed as informative and not determinative.
Self-identified partisans demonstrate North Carolina’s deep divide: 86 percent of North Carolina Republicans approve (strongly or somewhat), while 88 percent of Democrats disapprove of the president. A majority (55 percent) of North Carolina Independents disapprove of Trump, compared to 41 percent who approve.
“President Trump’s numbers appear to be settling into an underwater pattern in the state, and when combined with Tuesday’s election results, the canary in the coalmine is showing 2026 to be a classic mid-term environment,” said Dr. Michael Bitzer, professor of politics and history and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College, which wrote and paid for the survey.
“Going into 2026 and the mid-term elections, presidents with negative ratings are never a good sign for that party, which historically has lost seats in Congress. Tuesday’s results show a greater-than-expected electoral shift to the Democrats, and the issue of how voters view the economy, combined with an unpopular president and a pessimistic electorate, could be key drivers in the battle for control of Congress a year out,” Bitzer added.
In gauging the mood of North Carolinians about the future of the nation before Tuesday’s results, half of respondents said they were pessimistic about the nation’s future, with a third saying they were optimistic. Nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of Democrats and half (52 percent) of Independents are pessimistic, but 56 percent of Republicans said they are optimistic.
The Catawba-YouGov Survey asked about North Carolinian’s opinions on a variety of topics, including a year after Hurricane Helene, the use of the military in American cities, approval and disapproval of other officials, and an early sense of where the state stands for the 2026 mid-term elections.
North Carolinians disapprove of federal Hurricane Helene relief efforts, while agreeing that Trump’s use of the military in cities is “dictatorial”
When asked the federal government’s handling of recovery and restoration efforts in western North Carolina a year after Hurricane Helene, 54 percent disapprove to 32 percent approval. A plurality of self-identified Republicans in the state, 53 percent of Democrats and 59 percent of Independents disapprove of the federal government’s response. Half of those who recalled voting for Trump disapprove, compared to 42 percent who approve.
North Carolinians are divided over the president’s use of the National Guard and the military in cities, with 49 percent disapproving to 43 percent approving. While over 80 percent of partisans respectively approve or disapprove, 53 percent of Independents disapprove of the military being sent into American cities.
When asked whether the president’s decision to use the military is seen as the “actions of a dictator,” 51 percent agree, while 40 percent disagree. Nearly one-third (32 percent) of Republicans agree with describing Trump’s use of the military as dictatorial.
Stein remains in positive territory, while Tillis and both political parties are underwater
Democratic North Carolina governor Josh Stein continues to see his approval above water, with 51 percent approving to 27 percent disapproving, while 21 percent say they don’t know.
“In this age of political polarization, Governor Stein is benefitting not just from two-thirds of Democrats approving of his performance, but 52 percent of Independents and 40 percent of Republicans doing so,” Bitzer said.
While choosing not to run for re-election in 2026, Republican U.S. Senator Thom Tillis finds his numbers are still mixed, with 35 percent approving, 42 percent disapproving, and 23 percent don’t know. Tillis only garners 55 percent of Republicans approving of him, while a majority (59 percent) of Democrats and a plurality (43 percent) of Independents disapproving of him.
Tillis’ numbers continue the pattern from the June survey: the senator garnered 33 percent approval overall, with 44 percent disapproving and 22 percent indicating they didn’t know.
When asked about the congressional Democratic and Republican parties, 53 percent of North Carolinians disapprove of both parties. Only 40 percent approve of congressional Republicans, while congressional Democrats garnered only 38 percent approval. While partisans approve of their respective parties, Independents dislike both: 56 percent disapprove of the Republican Party, while 59 percent disapprove of the Democratic Party.
A year out from the 2026 mid-terms, half of North Carolinians approve of U.S. Senate Democratic candidate Cooper, while a plurality either ‘don’t know’ or ‘haven’t heard’ of Republican candidate Whatley
Republican front-runner U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley, who served as the chair of the N.C. Republican Party and as the national party chairman, has a plurality (40 percent) of North Carolinians who don’t know or never heard of him. Only 31 percent approve of him, while 29 percent disapprove of him.
Whatley’s front-runner Democratic opponent, former N.C. governor Roy Cooper, garners 50 percent approval from North Carolinians, with 35 percent disapproval and 15 percent either don’t know or having heard of him. While Cooper benefits from 82 percent approval from his own party, he gets 30 percent approval from Republicans and a plurality (43 percent) from Independents.
With the 2026 general election a year away, 58 percent of North Carolina respondents said they were ‘very likely’ to vote in the mid-terms. Two-thirds (67 percent) of Democrats said they were very likely, while 59 percent of Republicans and 56 percent of Independents said the same.
Looking back at the 2024 presidential election, nearly six out of ten North Carolinians (59 percent) said they were ‘very confident’ in their 2024 presidential choice and “would vote for the same candidate again and have no big concerns about them.” A quarter expressed confidence but “have some concerns” about their presidential vote choice a year afterwards. Only 5 percent were not confident and would vote for the other candidate.
Finally, the Catawba-YouGov Survey asked those who identified as Republican (either selecting Republican for their partisan self-identification or ‘lean’ Republican if they said they were Independent) about whether they were “more a supporter of Donald Trump than the Republican Party overall” or the reverse. Of the 402 respondents, over half—54 percent—said they were a supporter of Trump over the party, while 46 percent said they supported the party over the president.
More Findings from October’s Catawba-YouGov Survey to come
This is the second release of findings from Catawba-YouGov’s October survey of North Carolinians. Next week, additional releases will focus on North Carolinians’ perceptions of political polarization, when political violence is justified, and environmental and public health concerns.
For information regarding North Carolinians’ approval/disapproval, visit: catawba.edu/news/all-news/2025/yougov-6 and catawba.edu/news/all-news/2025/yougov-12.
